2004 Sales in Coto de Caza

February 9th, 2010

22962 Sonriente Trail

22962 Sonriente Trail

Hat Tips: Soylent Green is People & IrvineRealtor

The following data is for sales of $1,200,000 or more in Coto de Caza.  The only reason the data is cut off below $1,200,000 is because I just happen to have a data base for that particular set, getting a more inclusive data set of all sales would necessitate me asking for another favor, and the info on 165 sales in this particular data set took me five days to compile.  That’s enough for me.

There were 165 home sales of $1,200,000 or more in Coto de Caza in 2004.  Of that 165 homes, 54 homes have been sold again.  Of the 54 homes that sold, 1 is a REO and has not resold or been listed, 1 incurred the same amount of debt as the 2004 sale, 25 incurred less debt than the 2004 sales, and 27 incurred more debt than the 2004 sales.   Of the 24 that incurred less debt, 2 sold for cash, and 4 were sales of REO that had been purchased in 2004 and went back to the bank.

A mortgage broker friend of mine, (yes, he admits to being my friend), gave me his estimates on the types of loans that were brokered in 2004 and after.  He said that Option ARMs did not come into vogue until 2005, so most if not all the ARMs on properties below that were funded in 2004 are plain vanilla ARMs.  Interpreting his estimates, most of the homes that were bought in 2004 and resold in 2005 have Option ARMs with minimal underwriting standards, and an even greater percentage of those sold in 2006 and 2007 were funded with Option ARMs and no underwriting standards.  At the end of 2007, everything changed so that presently 95% of properties sold are funded with 30 year fixed rate loans instead of ARMs, although Delroy’s and my observations are  that most of the homes being purchased in the upper end market are still being funded with ARMs, but with 30% down.

The rest of the data will be regarding only the 111 homes that sold in 2004 and have not resold, and will include the most recent loan info only.  Ex. If a home sold for cash in 2004 and the owners took out a loan in 2006 and still own the home, the data presented will show them as having a loan.  The data as presented shows the most current status of loan information I have access to.

There are 108 homes that sold in 2004, are currently owned by the same owner as who bought in 2004, and have a mortgage. Of the 111, 3 were probably paid for with cash.  I say probably because the data base I use includes loan information, and so does not include loan information on cash sales, nor does it specify that the sale was cash.

Of the remaining 108 with mortgages:

  • 3 have a mortgage status that is unavailable to me.
  • 21 have never been refinanced or had an additional loan taken against them.
  • 1 was refinanced for an amount equal to the principal left after normal amortization, although it 3 reset for thirty years.
  • 2 were refinanced for the original principal amount and reset to thirty years.
  • 81 (77%)  refinanced or took out additional loans for more than the original principal amount.
  • 69 (66%) took out 2nd mortgages or refinanced 2nd mortgages after their 2004 purchase.
  • 9 have only a fixed rate 1st mortgage with no adjustable rate loan of any sort.
  • 83 (79%) have an ARM 1st mortgage
  • 9 have 3rd mortgages.

The reset dates of the current ARMs are as follows:

  • 2004 – 1
  • 2005 – 4
  • 2006 – 5
  • 2007 – 1
  • 2008 – 1
  • 2009 – 31
  • 2010 – 7
  • 2011 – 11
  • 2012 – 6
  • 2013 – 1
  • 2014 – 8
  • 2015 – 5
  • 2017 – 2

Let’s now look at their CLTV.  ( Mom, CLTV or Combined Loan To Value is the ratio of the total amount of loans to the value of the property.  Ex. If the house is worth $100,000 and the total loans equal $75,000, then the CLTV is 75% and the homeowner has 25% equity.  If the house is worth $100,000 and the total loans are $125,000, then the CLTV is 125% and the homeowner is underwater by 25%. )  Also, the amount used for combined loans in these calculations is based on the original amount of the most current loan and does not account for amortization or negative amortization

Of the 108 homes that sold in 2004 and have the same owners and for which I have access to the loan or cash info:

  • 3 have Combined Loan To Value percentages of 0%.
  • 6 have CLTVs between 1% and 50%.
  • 10 have CLTVs between 50% and 75%.
  • 27 have CLTVs between 75% and 100%.
  • 32 have CLTVs between 100% and 125%.
  • 22 have CLTVs between 125% and 150%.
  • 7 have CLTVs of 150% to 175%.
  • 1 has a CLTV of 191%,

which would mean that 57% are underwater not accounting for neg am, sales commissions, and closing costs.  My observation is that there is a heck of a lot more negative amortization than amortization on properties purchased in the last 6 years.

cdcrez Uncategorized

Prime Jumbo Loans Approach 10% Delinquency

February 8th, 2010

You can read the whole article, “Fitch: New Year, No Improvement as U.S. Prime Jumbo RMBS Delinquencies Approach 10%“, on Business Wire.

U.S. prime jumbo loan performance continued to weaken in January as serious delinquencies rose for the 32nd consecutive month, according to Fitch Ratings in the latest edition of Performance Metrics.

“The new year has brought no relief from declining jumbo loan performance,” said Managing Director Vincent Barberio. “The trend line for delinquencies indicates the 10% level could be reached as early as next month.”

Although prime jumbo loan delinquencies began to rise in the second quarter of 2007, they accelerated in 2009 nearly tripling over the course of the year. Florida saw the biggest monthly jump of the five states with the highest volume of jumbo loans outstanding.

California: 11.3%, up from 10.8% (44% share of the market);

Fitch is talking about PRIME Jumbo, folks.  These are the AAA borrowers.

cdcrez Uncategorized

This Week, (2/07/10), in Foreclosures

February 8th, 2010
6 Panorama

6 Panorama

 

 

62 Spoon Lane – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/08/10.  There have been at least two postponements.

The trustee sale filed by the CZ Master Association for 114 Vela Court initially showed as canceled on 12/23/09, but a trustee sale was scheduled for 1/29/10 soon after the NTS showed as canceled.  The trustee sale filed by the CA Master Association has been postponed until 2/05/10.  Another trustee sale has been scheduled for 2/19/10, this one filed by the lender.

5 HEATHERWOOD – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/08/09.  There are two NODs, both of which were filed by lenders and not the CZ Master Association.  The NOD associated with the present NTS recorded on 11/18/08 for $21,300 and was filed by the 2nd mortgage holder.  The second NOD recorded on 4/27/09 for $20,012 and was filed by the 1st mortgage holder.  This was the third postponement of the trustee sale.

12 LONE WOLF – The trustee sale has been postponed until 02/09/10.  The NOD recorded on 03/16/09 for $39,372.  There have been 6 postponements.

9 Creek View – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/09/10.   The NOD amount is $22,080 and it recorded on 4/10/09.  9 Creek View is listed for sale as a short sale and the status is shown as “Accepting Backup Offers”.  There have been 7 postponements.

4 ROCKROSE CT – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/10/10.  The notice of default recorded on 3/27/09 for $14,890.  There have been 5 postponements.

27 Harvard Court – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/10/10.  The notice of default recorded on 8/10/09 for $7,255.  There have been 3 postponements.

3 Endicott – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/10/10.  The NOD recorded on 12/17/08 for $71,466.   There have been 9 postponements.

24262 Fairway Lane – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/11/10 and was filed by the CZ Master Association.

6 PANORAMA - The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/11/10.  The NOD recorded on 01/16/09 for $33,502.  There have been 15 postponements, and the first scheduled auction date was 5/21/09.  Since the NOD recorded in January, the last payment was made at the latest in September of 2008 and most likely some time before that.  This owner has to be an attorney.

35 Fontaire – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/11/10.  The NTS recorded on 08/07/09 for $6,997.  There have been 9 postponements.

32002 Via Buho – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/11/10.  The NOD recorded on 11/19/08 with an amount of $32,572.  There have been 11 postponements.

8 Brumby – The trustee has been postponed until 02/11/10.  The notice of default recorded on 3/25/09 for $53,969.  There have been 4 postponements.

26 Centaurus Way – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/11/10.  The NOD recorded on 8/19/09 for $22,027.  The trustee sale has been postponed three times.

24 Meritage – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/11/10 with an estimated debt amount of $8,209.86.  The trustee sale has been postponed 5 times.

cdcrez Uncategorized

More Loan Mods Gone Wild

February 8th, 2010
114 Vela Court
114 Vela Court

Taking up from where we left off on our post, “114 Vela Court“, the original Notice of Default from the 1st mortgage lender had gone into hibernation, or maybe it was canceled, but it no longer appeared on foreclosure lists.  The original NOD recorded on 7/18/08.  That’s July of 2008, eighteen months ago.  The original default amount was $153,706 on an original loan amount of $1,835,000 setting the published bid amount at $1,988,706 and a projected sale date of 11/15/08, or a little over one year ago.

It appears the borrowers received a loan modification because the NOD disappeared.  Thank goodness, eh?  Because loan modifications will greatly decrease the number of foreclosures and keep well meaning folks in their homes and keep home prices from falling, right?

On 1/20/10, a Notice of Trustee Sale from the 1st mortgage lender recorded with a scheduled auction date of 2/09/10 and a published bid amount of $2,386,864.  Yup, that was $2,386,865! If you look in the first paragraph you will see the first published bid amount was $1,988,706.  For those of you who are new to the CHB, the published bid amount is the total amount owed on the loan the NTS was filed on.  The current published bid amount is $398,159 more than the original published bid amount and $551,865 more than the original loan amount!

It is no big secret that the reason lenders have in the past been hesitant and resistant to modifying loans and much more likely to foreclose is because they know from past experience and history that overall, the huge majority of loan modifications only forestall foreclosure and cost the lender more than the initial foreclosure would have.  It will be interesting to watch and see if the lender postpones the foreclosure auction for a loan that they have been consistently burned on.

Aren’t you glad you are paying the lenders and the borrowers to modify loans under HARP and HAMP?  If the number of loans modified through HAMP are disappointing, maybe the present administration should extend the number of qualifiers to those with loans up to $2,500,000.  Isn’t that what the government does with failed programs; make them larger?

cdcrez Uncategorized

More Loan Mods Gone Wild

February 7th, 2010
24086 Fairway Lane
24086 Fairway Lane

Everyone was asking, and 24086 Fairway, the subject of our previous post, “I Ain’t No Lawyer, But … “, is back.  It is back on the market for sale, and it is back in foreclosure.  The Notice of Trustee Sale filed by the 1st holder was canceled in August of 2009, presumably due to a loan modification.  Do loan modifications halt foreclosures?  They do, … for about nine months, all the while more payments are not being paid, more debt is being accumulated, and the pretend and extend serves only to keep housing unaffordable for a bit longer than would be best for all concerned.  Except of course for those who aren’t paying their mortgage, and the banks who are able to show profits, pay huge bonuses based on those profits, and use taxpayer money to fund their speculations and purchase their toxic CDOs.  Thank goodness for loan mods and foreclosure cancellations due to them.

This presently recorded Notice of Default was filed by the 2nd holder for $5,737.  Maybe the owner can get a 2nd mortgage loan mod under Supplemental Directive 09-05 and we can directly pay for the borrower’s principal reduction?  Or maybe the owners will sell the house and pay off the lenders?

Honestly, I think these owners will sell their house and pay off the mortgages.  And quite honestly, I really don’t care if people don’t pay their mortgage and I don’t care if the banks have to eat it.  I don’t even care if banks modify loans.  But I do care that you and I are paying for it, wrongfully.  If a bank makes a bad loan or if an organization buys a CDO with bad tranches, fine.  They can pay for it.  I teach my children to be responsible for their actions.  Where in the world do folks get the idea that the government can somehow negate responsibility?

cdcrez Uncategorized

Shrouded in Secrecy

February 6th, 2010

20080723_secrecy_33

It looks like some the world’s major central banks are meeting in Australia.  Ya gotta really think yourself important if ya gotta meet in secret.

Secret Summit of Top Bankers” by George Kekakis and Fleur Leyden in news.com.au.

THE world’s top central bankers began arriving in Australia yesterday as renewed fears about the strength of the global economic recovery gripped world share markets.

Representatives from 24 central banks and monetary authorities including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank landed in Sydney to meet tomorrow at a secret location, the Herald Sun reports.

Organized by the Bank for International Settlements last year, the two-day talks are shrouded in secrecy with high-level security believed to have been invoked by law enforcement agencies.

cdcrez Uncategorized

Update to This Week, (1/31/10), in Foreclosures

February 6th, 2010

22732 Mandarina

22732 Mandarina

22 Water Lily Way – The trustee sale has been postponed until 3/01/10.  The NOD recorded on 7/13/09 for $33,963.  There have been 3 postponements.

12 Northampton Place – The trustee sale is scheduled for 3/12/10.  The NOD recorded on 10/14/09 for $73,278.  This is the second scheduled auction date.

9 Marquette Way – The trustee sale is scheduled for 4/05/10.  The NOD recorded on 7/24/09 for $64,324.  Total amounts owed on the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd are more than $2,000,000.  This is the second scheduled auction date.

6 Aquila Way – The trustee sale has been postponed until 3/01/10.  The NOD recorded on 3/18/09 for $83,842.   There have been 5 postponements of the trustee sale.

The trustee sale for 4 Via Terracaleta was canceled.  The amount showing as owed on the Notice of Default was $48,999.  Is it safe to presume a loan mod?

12 Shire – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/18/10.  The Notice of Trustee Sale appears to have been filed by the CZ Master Association because the published bid is only $6,723,70.

24262 Fairway Lane – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/11/10 and was filed by the CZ Master Association.

31752 Secoya Way – The trustee sale has been postponed until 03/09/10.  The notice of sale amount is $2,765,464.10 and the trustee sale date has been postponed three times.

7 Pictor – The trustee sale has been postponed until 3/04/10.  The notice of default recorded on 3/16/09 for $22,195 and the trustee sale has been postponed 3 times.

26 Centaurus Way – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/11/10.  The NOD recorded on 8/19/09 for $22,027.  The trustee sale has been postponed three times.

20 Dartmouth – The trustee sale has been postponed until 2/22/10 and was filed by the CZ Master Association.

49 Charleston – The trustee sale has been postponed until 3/05/10.  The NOD recorded on 2/24/09 for $19,671 and there have been 12 postponements.

31862 Via Patito The trustee sale has been postponed until 4/05/10.  The notice of default recorded on 3/27/09 for $48,382.  There have been 10 postponements.

22732 Mandarina Lane – The trustee sale is scheduled for 4/16/10.  The NOD recorded on 8/10/09 for $101,912.    The auction has been postponed once.

85 Panorama – The trustee sale was postponed until 3/19/10.  The NOD recorded on 9/23/09 for $140,347.    85 Panorama sold on 1/28/10 as a short sale for $1,500,000 so this trustee sale should be canceled within the next couple of weeks and stay canceled.

The trustee sale for 2 Via Andorra was canceled.  Told ya so.

cdcrez Uncategorized

Revisit: Supply and demand above $1.75mil

February 6th, 2010

6 months back I did a post on the drought in the $1.75mil and up market.  I thought it was worth revisiting due to our recent activity.

Since then, 9 homes $1.75mil and above have closed escrow (in sequential order by date):

Homes currently in escrow

So we are looking at roughly 13 sales in 6 months (compared to 8 sales in the previous 12 when I did my past profile, 9 in the last 3 months (compared to 2).  Definitely a bit of a recovery.

What’s driving the sales?  I’d be curious to hear what people who know the market more than I do think, but a few things I can think of:

  • Pricing.  I look at the above, and many of those homes have had pretty drastic price cuts, down to 2002-2003 level.  (50 panorama, 23781 Via Roble, 31731 Capuchina, 12 atherton, 2 Havenhurst and 31232 Via Colinas all are what I would consider “agressive sales”)
  • Stock market rebound.  The Dow bottomed in March around 6500.  We had a plateau in mid July and then a strong bounce to prices right before the Sept 2008 mess.
  • Sick of waiting/found what they liked.  There was a 2 year pause in sales.  I’m guessing many people who were looking stopped, but finally decided they needed to buy.  I look at a few sales and the prices are head scratchers (3 taiga, 16 cornflower, 2 Bordeaux, 27 Portmarnoch, 41 Augusta)… I’m guessing those owners just felt it was time to buy and had a home they liked.
  • Loans became available.   I’ve heard from numerous sources that for a while only FHA loans were available, which eliminated any jumbo loans.  While several of the above homes were cash buys, many were financed.
  • Strength in the mid market.  Most of these homes are “move up” homes.  Most people need to sell their home to move up.  I’m guessing having your home be a bit more liquid allowed people to get a fairly quick contingent sale

What say ye?  Any thoughts?

Some more questions for thought:

- How long will this rally be sustained?  Are we running out of buyers with each home sold, are are there enough on the sidelines that we can expect this trend to continue… or are we running out of inventory?

- What happens as spring inventory comes on the market?  Will the recent flurry of sales encourage more people to list?  When they list will they list below like-priced homes, or will they list above?  (or do they look at the closed sales and list there, realizing many of the homes on the market now are priced high relative to some of the closed sales)

If any of our readers happened to be buyers of the above homes, we’d love to hear your story.  (If you are too shy to post, a CHB welcome to the neighborhood, and we hope you enjoy your new pad!)

C Delroy Spuckler Uncategorized

Update to “To Catch a Falling Knife”

February 5th, 2010

23435 Via Alondra
23435 Via Alondra

The photos in the listing for 23435 Via Alondra look as if somone is living there.  They do not look staged.  23435 Via Alondra, the featured property in our post, “To Catch a Falling Knife“,  is shown as selling to a third party at the foreclosure auction on 1/07/10 for $610,000, and it was listed for sale on 2/01/10 for $774,000.

Did anybody even move out or in?  And who bought 23435 Via Alondra?  It was someone who had $610,000 in cash.  Was it the 2nd holder protecting his investment?

He “sold” this home in May of 2007 for $935,000.

One could make a case that there were hardly any payments made on the 1st mortgage.  The present owner was the listing agent for 23435 Via Alondra the last time it was for sale.

There were no postponements of the auction.

cdcrez Uncategorized

This Weekend, (2/6/10), in Open Houses

February 5th, 2010

31132 Via Colinas

31132 Via Colinas

31132 Via Colinas will be having an open house on Saturday, February 6 from 1:00 pm to 4:00 pm.

31021 Via Colinas will be having an open house on Saturday, February 6 from 1:00 pm to 4:00 pm.

cdcrez Uncategorized