Archive for the ‘Tracts’ Category

Average is Good

Sep 9th, 10 / by C Delroy Spuckler / 1 Comment

6 Westchester, closed at $271/sqft

Everyone thinks their home is above average.  If you say a home is average, its almost viewed as an insult.  Our home is where we live and many of us put a lot of effort, time and money into making our house something special for us.  We are proud of our homes, which is good.  Showing pride in your home is what keeps our neighborhoods looking so dang nice.  Still, 49.9% of the homes in any neighborhood are below average for that neighborhood.  That’s just the way it is.  Math sucks.

6 Westchester closed yesterday at $859,000.   That’s $271/sqft.  We’ve noticed that this seems to be roughly where nice average homes in Coto sell.  Given the data I showed on homes currently with accepted offers, $271 is slightly below average for equity sales.  When I saw that picture, the first thought that came to my mind was “what a nice house”.  I can see why Stuck would be sitting outside Tanglewood waiting to buy up all the homes.

What do we get for $271/sqft with this home?

I haven’t seen the house in person, but by the MLS pictures it really looks like a wonderful house.  I can picture someone raising a family there and being very happy.  Based on its price per square foot, the market says its probably in the lower 49.9% of homes in Coto as far as finish level or maybe right around average.

The purpose of this post is not to put down what by almost all measures is a great house.  I picked the house because I actually liked that pictures and it got me thinking.  The purpose of this post is to show the relative standards set in Coto, due to the success and hard work of many of its residents.  Its to show when we talk about homes going for $275/sqft what people are getting for that price.  We are spoiled.  Average is good.  That $271/sqft bought a darned nice home.

The home was on the market a little over 2 months before closing.  They had 1 minor price reduction 2 weeks after listing, and eventually sold for just over 2% below their original listing price.   The listing agent appears to have done a good job pricing the home to sell in a reasonable timeframe.   There still appears to be a good market in Coto for nice, properly priced homes.

Congratulations to the new owner.

Coto Market, Tanglewood

It Takes 2 to Tango

Aug 1st, 10 / by C Delroy Spuckler / 0 Comments

Recent Atherton Listings

Last summer we had a price war over in Pinnacle.  We had multiple homes wishing to sell, a stale buyers market, and the potential of a foreclosure on the street.  The result was several homes dropping prices aggressively to sell.  Since then, Pinnacle seems to have rebounded and held its own.

Is Atherton this summer’s Pinnacle?  When I see 2 price drops, from different agents, on the same tract, on similar models, on the same day… you can’t help but wonder.  Now, that was also the end of July, so there is probably a good chance this was not one agent responding to another… it was probably “hey, July’s over, lets talk strategy”.

I can’t also help but think these prices are also more a reflection of 19 Havenhurst’s closing at $2.3mil, plus 5 Winston and 4 Havenhurst listing at $2.4mil. Weatherly and Atherton are the two non custom tracts which feature the best lots.  They also are very well built homes, and have a very nice single story model.  IMHO the Weatherly product is superior (as delivered by the builder) and it makes sense they should fetch a premium over their Atherton kin… they are larger and better built.

So, is there a price war in Atherton?  Lets look at my chart above.  This shows some of the price history of some recent listings.  The dotted lines represent a period of delisting.  We’ve had 2 closed sales recently, 12 Atherton and 16 Atherton.  Both had very nice lots.  12 Atherton was the larger model with a very well finished lot.  16 Atherton was a single story, but had a great interior finish, but an unfinished lot (relative to their neighbor).  IMHO, these two products were superior to 1 Thornton and 12 Thurston.  They priced lower, and they moved quickly.

Look at 12 Thurston and 1 Thornton’s price history and I think what you are seeing is more of a correction and the end of summer than a price war.  Looking at their price history, in my opinion they look high.  The homes which are closing above $2.2mil right now are very nicely done, larger custom homes or Weatherlies with very nice lots.  Thurston and Thornton are very nice homes with very nice lots, but don’t seem to be in the category as the ones fetching that premium.

Nicer Atherton models seem to be fetching in the high 1’s right now.  Looking at that graph, it looks like 1 Thornton is starting to get to the right range.  12 Thurston might still be  a bit high (especially with 5 Winston and 4 Havenhurst as options for single stories), but it might be within a talkdown.

We’ve got 4 nice single story homes in Atherton and Weatherly.  All are at a sharp discount to what homes were listing at just a year ago.  They are all priced to the point I think their owners want to sell.  I’ve pointed out in this week’s review that is been almost 2 months sense we’ve had an accepted bid above $1.6mil stick.  It will be interesting to follow these homes to see when/where they close at.

Atherton

Short Sale Bargain?

Jun 23rd, 10 / by C Delroy Spuckler / 6 Comments

10 Tucson

I already admitted today I’m not an expert in the short sale process.  When I saw this listing for 10 Tucson pop up, I immediately thought “bring back the Blue Light Special”.  Here’s why:

  • Oak Knoll… while its a it McMansiony at times, I love the floorplans, and many of the homes I’ve seen are very nicely done.
  • Culda-sac location (which to me in Oak Knoll gets rid of some of the McMansionism)
  • The largest floorplan… 5900 sqft
  • Decent lot @ 0.36 acres and what looks to be some nice hardsaping
  • Great price: $1,195,000…. that’s $203/sqft.  That’s off the charts.
  • Reputable, experienced, local seller’s agent to deal with

Pictures aren’t up yet, but my bing picture looks promising, and the MLS description sounds very promising.

Here’s my problem… I don’t know what the meaning of an asking price on a short sale is.  Its hard enough in other cases where the price is set to get a bidding war going… but IMHO with this price you’ve got a strong potential for multiple bids and then you still have to deal with the bank approving it.

Maybe this is actually the proper way to handle a short sale, because you are essentially doing an auction, and should be able to determine FMV.  Go to the bank, “hey, I had 5 bids, countered them all until I got the best, and here it is… and here’s the backup bid”.  That sounds like a very strong argument for fair market value.  This price definitely to me has enough “shock value” to attract bids quickly.

So rather than making a buy recommendation, I’ll leave to to our readers to comment.  What say ye?  Deal or no deal?

Oak Knoll

Another Update to “Psst, Hey Buddy, Wanna Buy Some 2nd Mortgages?”

Jun 23rd, 10 / by cdcrez / 0 Comments

24162 Fairway Lane

The opening bid on 24162 Fairway Lane was $298,544 today at the foreclosure auction.  It must have been an interesting auction to watch because the winning bid was $680,000 to a 3rd party.  I can’t help but wonder if the 2nd mortgage holder was bidding or was maybe even the winning bidder.  It would appear that the 1st mortgage holder, Citimortgage, got paid everything owed to it, approximately $300,000.  The originator of the 2nd mortgage was Citibank West FSB, but we have no idea who was holding the 2nd mortgage at the time of the auction.

Well Delroy, we now know exactly what 24162 Fairway Lane is worth.

4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, 2,439 square feet, on the golf course; $680,000.

Coto Country, Coto Market, Sold at Foreclosure Auction, This Week in Foreclosure Auctions

What are prices in Coto doing? (Oak Ridge Edition)

May 28th, 10 / by C Delroy Spuckler / 2 Comments

Oak Ridge Sales

This post was inspired by cdcrez’s post “Anecdotal For Sure, But Interesting None The Less”

In Escrow

There are currently no homes in escrow

Active Listings

Date Address Tract Active Listing Sellers Agent
5/27/2010 10 Coastal Oak Oak Ridge $549,000.00 Ken Bowen
5/27/2010 6 Willow Bend Oak Ridge $975,000.00 Debra Kovacs

House Variations

You have 5 different models ranging from 2300 sqft to just over 3000 sqft.  Many homes have golf course views, while several back up to Vista del Verde.

Foreclosure Activity

There is one home, 1 Rockrose, which appears to be bank owned, having gone back to Deutsche bank on 12/24/2009 for $803k.  There was a NTS which was rescinded in April.

Sold

Date Address Closing Price Sellers Agent Buyers Agent
12/31/2009 6 Rockrose $660,000.00 Rita Chen Doug Digiore
11/4/2009 5 Coffeeberry $725,000.00 Dave Ashley Michael Walsh
8/28/2009 12 Coastal Oak $840,000.00 Michael Krieg Lee Ann Canaday
8/23/2009 29 Creek View $814,000.00 Joan Dean Val Mantefu
8/6/2009 6 Willow Bend $875,000.00 Debra Kovacs Debra Kovacs
7/31/2009 6 Coffeeberry $615,000.00 Ken Bowen Han Kim
3/16/2009 3 Coastal Oak $790,000.00 Tammy Coston Kathleen Monroe
2/3/2009 9 Lilac $695,000.00 Bobbi Mezger Ron Peterson
8/21/2008 5 Coffeeberry $815,000.00 Ken Bowen Dave Ashley
4/19/2008 17 Creek View $887,500.00 Mary Beth Buckles Keith Casebolt
1/14/2008 5 Coastal Oak $925,000.00 Lisa Clay Brian Alba
12/13/2007 48 Creek View $905,000.00 Edie Newmeyer Art Miro
4/23/2007 2 Rockrose $1,003,500.00
2/14/2007 4 Rockrose $825,000.00

Comments on sales

Year Low Sale High Sale Median Volume
2009 $615,000.00 $875,000.00 $757,500.00 8
2008 $815,000.00 $925,000.00 $887,500.00 3
2007 $825,000.00 $1,003,500.00 $905,000.00 3

No sales in 2010.  Low high and median dropped YOY in 2007-2009.  volume was quite high in 2009.

Comments on active listings

10 Coastal Oaks, if sold anywhere near its asking price, would represent the lowest sale in this tract since my data shows.  6 Willow Bend at its asking price is above 2009 and 2008 high prices, and approaching 2007 high sale (and well above 2007 median).

Comments on escrow

No homes in escrow.

Overall

The sales graph is interesting in that in August of 2009 we had 3 sales and all were at fairly high prices…  any ideas from anyone on why this happened?   If we ignore those 3, the tract shows a very steep downward trend.

The 2 active listings are interesting in that they are 2 extremes… a high and a low.  cdcrez likes $$/sqft to equalize out model… and you are talking $200/sqft vs. $300/sqft.   I would be curious if any of our readers have seen either house and could comment on the discrepancy in price.

Kinda hard to tell what’s going on… you had a strong bounce in august 2009, the some lows again.

Oak Ridge, What are prices doing?

What are prices in Coto doing? (Rosewood Update)

May 24th, 10 / by C Delroy Spuckler / 12 Comments

7 Sharon, @ $899,000

As a reminder, I’m going back and revisiting our original tract analysis I did a few months back.  I am not picking tracts at random. Since I did updates just a few months back, I’m picking tracts which have had decent volume in transactions on MLS (price changes, closed sales and going into escrow).

Rosewood Sales

In Escrow

Date Address Tract Escrow Sellers Agent
5/23/2010 7 Sharon Lane Rosewood $899,000.00 Ken Bowen

Active Listings

Date Address Tract Active Listing Sellers Agent
5/23/2010 12 Victoria Rosewood $1,089,000.00 Janet Irvin
5/23/2010 37 Pamela Way Rosewood $1,094,000.00 Jane O’Reilly
5/23/2010 17 Pamela Way Rosewood $1,149,000.00 Jane O’Reilly
5/23/2010 19 Pamela Way Rosewood $1,199,000.00 Tina Maroutian

Foreclosure Activity

Per RealtyTrac there is currently a single active NTS in Rosewood, 7 Sharon.  It was listed on MLS and is shown as status Pending in Redfin.  There was also a back owned property in Rosewood, 1 Victoria, which sold on 4/26/2010 to a third party for $965,000.

Sold

Date Address Tract Closing Price Sellers Agent Buyers Agent
4/26/2010 1 Victoria Rosewood $965,000.00 Richard Garrison Monica Fierce
4/3/2010 22 Pamela Way Rosewood $995,000.00 Lloyd Gass Joan Wilson
2/16/2010 25 Pamela Rosewood $940,000.00 Dawn Piscopo Laura Simmons
1/26/2010 2 Pamela Way Rosewood $900,000.00 Anne Olson Sandy Farmer
11/30/2009 39 Pamela Way Rosewood $1,098,500.00 Jane O’Reilly Cheryl Lynch
11/2/2009 10 Madeline Rosewood $1,045,000.00 Mike Ameel Goly Kohanteb
10/21/2009 25 Pamela Rosewood $904,015.00
9/16/2009 1 Victoria Rosewood $1,119,539.00
6/5/2009 7 Madeline Rosewood $1,208,500.00 Jesse Brossa Jennifer Georgagi
5/28/2009 6 Sharon Rosewood $985,000.00 Ken Bowen Darin Hardin
1/9/2009 27 Pamela Rosewood $1,078,000.00 Patrick O’Reilly Jerome Thomas
11/19/2008 51 Pamela Way Rosewood $1,075,000.00 Christopher Mahr Gary Hansen
8/28/2008 2 Sharon Rosewood $1,078,000.00 Patrick O’Reilly Kerrie Buncher
8/27/2008 16 Pamela Way Rosewood $1,060,000.00 Kathleen Clancy Jennifer Schneider
7/11/2008 47 South Pamela Rosewood $1,250,000.00 Gilbert Hooper Chris Chaney
7/10/2007 16 Victoria Rosewood $1,225,000.00
3/30/2007 4 Sharon Rosewood $1,250,000.00
1/26/2007 1 Victoria Rosewood $1,350,000.00

Comments on sales

Year Low Sale High Sale Median Volume
2010 $900,000.00 $995,000.00 $952,500.00 4
2009 $904,015.00 $1,208,500.00 $1,078,000.00 7
2008 $1,060,000.00 $1,250,000.00 $1,076,500.00 4
2007 $1,225,000.00 $1,350,000.00 $1,250,000.00 3

A good number of sales in the first part of 2010.  High and median are significanly off 2009 with low slightly off.

Comments on active listings

The chart above probably best illustrates it.  The active listings are all 10-20% above recent sales.

Comments on escrow

The current home in escrow, if closed at asking, would represent the lowest price sale in several years (since before I have collected data), although it is only slightly off the current low.  (AKA there would be a comp to the bank which would say it might be a reasonable offer)

Comments Since We Last Visited

When we last visited we had a single home in escrow:

  • 22 Pamela, asking $999k, closed 4/3/2010 at $995,000

We also had a single active listing

  • 7 Sharon, asking $950k, currently has PENDING status at $899k

Overall

Overall, prices are down from 2009.  Asking prices though are significantly higher.  We’ll see if there are any takers at the new price and if the low was just due to us burning through a few distressed properties.

Coto Market, Rosewood, What are prices doing?

What are prices in Coto doing? (Southern Hills Encore: The Encore)

May 19th, 10 / by C Delroy Spuckler / 2 Comments
7 Peony

7 Peony

Southern Hills Encore Sales

Southern Hills Encore Sales

In Escrow

Date Address Tract Escrow Sellers Agent
5/18/2010 7 Peony Southern Hills Encore $  1,149,000.00 Peggy Jiura
5/18/2010 4 Lake View Southern Hills Encore $      999,900.00 John Karelius
5/18/2010 20 Lake View Southern Hills Encore $  1,199,000.00 Ken Bowen
5/18/2010 28 Water Lily Southern Hills Encore $  1,249,000.00 Ken Bowen

Active Listings

None

House Variations

3 Floorplans from 3900 to 4300 square feet.  Some golfcourse / lake views.  A few homes also appear to back up to Coto de Caza Drive, although I’m not sure how much traffic noise is an issue (maybe one of our readers can comment)

Foreclosure Activity

When we last met, 12 Water Lily,  went back to the bank.  Another home, 22 Water Lily went back to the bank on 5/03/10 at foreclosure auction with an opening bid of $1,475,463.   There are 3 other NOD’s listed on Realtytrac.  (Thanks S6M ;) )

Sold

Date Address Tract Closing Price Sellers Agent Buyers Agent
10/5/2009 20 Water Lily Southern Hills Encore $  1,225,000.00 Monica Fierce Michael Ho
8/18/2009 30 Lake View Southern Hills Encore $  1,066,000.00 Ken Bowen David O’Brien
7/13/2009 36 Water Lily Southern Hills Encore $  1,090,000.00 Pam Spadafore Dede Englebrecht
4/24/2009 6 Water Lily Southern Hills Encore $  1,063,500.00 Nathan Merka Kathie Darling
12/10/2008 46 Water Lily Southern Hills Encore $  1,700,000.00 Jennifer Rodriguez Mary Gott
11/7/2008 24 Peony Southern Hills Encore $  1,100,000.00 Cathleen Pryor
8/7/2008 8 Golden Poppy Southern Hills Encore $  1,450,000.00 Bobbi Mezger Linda Huebner
6/7/2008 28 Lake View Southern Hills Encore $  1,375,000.00 Suzanne Goldman Cheryl Lynch
5/8/2008 18 Water Lily Southern Hills Encore $  1,512,500.00 Don Wright
3/6/2008 18 Lake View Southern Hills Encore $  1,325,000.00
1/31/2008 24 Lake View Southern Hills Encore $  1,520,000.00 Terry Olejnik Kathy Kanan
8/24/2007 18 Water Lily Southern Hills Encore $  1,225,000.00
8/23/2007 2 Golden Poppy Southern Hills Encore $  1,575,000.00 Don Wright Patrica Doyle
7/31/2007 18 Golden Poppy Southern Hills Encore $  1,400,000.00
6/21/2007 10 Golden Poppy Southern Hills Encore $  1,500,000.00

Comments on sales

Year Low Sale High Sale Median Volume
2010 $999,900.00 $1,249,000.00 $1,174,000.00 4
2009 $1,063,500.00 $1,225,000.00 $1,078,000.00 4
2008 $1,100,000.00 $1,700,000.00 $1,450,000.00 7
2007 $1,225,000.00 $1,575,000.00 $1,450,000.00 2

We haven’t had any closed sales since our last visit, so to make the analysis interesting I’ll view the homes in escrow as 2010 sales (assume we are probably off by 3% on the high side).  The low dropped, high stayed the same (within our 3% margin of error, so I call it a statistical draw).  The median however, went up roughly $100k.  I guess between the median shift and looking at the graph, I’d say prices are up probably 5-7% over 2009.

Comments Since We Last Visited

We had two homes listed last time we visited:

  • 7 Peony: currently in escrow, after dropping its price $50k from $1,199,000 to $1,149,000
  • 4 Lake View: currently in escrow after dropping its price $54k from $1,054,000 to $999,900

Overall

Even with some foreclosure threat (and one REO) the tract seems fairly liquid with all homes having sold.  There is currently no inventory, so its not clear what will happen next.  Last time we had some feedback the prices were a bit high and orices dropped about 5% and the homes both went into escrow.  Good call.

Southern Hills Encore, What are prices doing?

Can You Say Flip?

May 17th, 10 / by C Delroy Spuckler / 9 Comments

3 Endicott, asking $1,699,000

That didn’t take long.

Last we saw it, 3 Endicott was sold at the courthouse step to a third party for $1,250,000.  That was March 30th.

It just showed back up on MLS, asking $1,699,000. For those of you bad at math, that would be a 36% gain (minus fees) if they get that price.

You’ve currently got 2 Del Mar models in escrow:

So pricing seems reasonable.  But you can view my update to the tract for more detailed closed sale info.

Oak Knoll

What are prices in Coto doing? (Tanglewood 5/15)

May 17th, 10 / by C Delroy Spuckler / 1 Comment
Tanglewood Sales

Tanglewood Sales

Note

I’m going through and updating some of my pages.  I’ve been tracking things since I wrote them and decided to look at a few tracts which have had some volume in 2010 so we can see how things look so far, now that were into the buying season.  I’ll be picking updates based on tracts with significant numbers of closed sales, escrow and new listings.

In Escrow

No homes are currently in escrow

Active Listings

Date Address Tract Active Listing Sellers Agent
5/15/2010 8 Jackson Tanglewood $849,000.00 Ed Molina
5/15/2010 51 Charleston Tanglewood $899,900.00 Darryl Willis
5/15/2010 39 Charleston Tanglewood $979,000.00 Victoria Strombom

Sold

Date Address Tract Closing Price Sellers Agent Buyers Agent
3/31/2010 21 Charleston Tanglewood $900,000.00 Don Cavanaugh Amber Martin
3/25/2010 9 Jackson Tanglewood $950,000.00 Ken Bowen Nancy Dresser
3/10/2010 15 Williamsburg Tanglewood $840,000.00 Kip Adkins Sheila Braun
3/11/2009 77 Charleston Tanglewood $820,000.00
3/6/2009 4 Williamsburg Tanglewood $999,000.00 Debra Kovacs Barbara Dorber
11/7/2008 21 Westchester Tanglewood $729,900.00 Ann Jochim Kathy Serrano
8/28/2008 17 Westchester Tanglewood $815,000.00 Monica Fierce Mario Savan
8/28/2008 19 Westchester Tanglewood $825,000.00 Johanna Voytish Richard Stuart
6/2/2008 6 Westchester Tanglewood $910,000.00 Ken Bowen Paula Cosenza
2/13/2008 8 Jackson Tanglewood $830,000.00
2/7/2008 17 Charleston Tanglewood $770,000.00 Bessie Blazejewski Steve Mahinfar
11/30/2007 15 Charleston Tanglewood $890,000.00 Patrick O’Reilly Patrick O’Reilly
10/5/2007 1 Westchester Tanglewood $1,114,000.00 George Barr Marc Gold
9/2/2007 9 Jackson Tanglewood $1,150,000.00
6/19/2007 11 Charleston Tanglewood $1,155,000.00
5/9/2007 22 Williamsburg Tanglewood $960,000.00
4/26/2007 17 Charleston Tanglewood $1,195,000.00

Comments on sales

Year Low Sale High Sale Median Volume
2010 $840,000.00 $950,000.00 $900,000.00 3
2009 $820,000.00 $999,000.00 $909,500.00 2
2008 $729,900.00 $910,000.00 $820,000.00 6
2007 $890,000.00 $1,195,000.00 $1,132,000.00 6

Sales continue but prices have leveled off at 2009 prices.  If you remember, this was the one tract found which showed price appreciation from 2008-2009… so that’s not completely unexpected.

Comments since we last visited

When we last visited we had 2 homes in escrow:

We also had 5 active listings:

Overall

Current active listings are in the $280/sqft range, which is slightly above Coto average but given the quality of homes in this tract and the standard 3-5% “wiggle room” on price, I would consider the prices at average.  2 of the 3 homes are below 2009/2010 median.  The two lower priced homes look to be fairly “manufacture stock”… some upgrades but nothing out of the ordinary… nice solid homes.  2 of the 3 back up to the golf course.  The one listed at $979k looks to have been upgraded significantly… but at 240DOM and 5 months since the last price change, its not clear the market believes its worth the premium.

I haven’t seen them, so I’ll leave it to our readers for further comments…

Tanglewood, What are prices doing?

UPDATE: What Are Prices In Coto Doing? (Oak Knoll Edition)

May 10th, 10 / by C Delroy Spuckler / 0 Comments
25 Rocky Mountain, In Escrow

25 Rocky Mountain, In Escrow

Given a few posts where we’ve questioned the amount of inventory and its overall impact on Oak Knoll sales… I figured it was time to revisit our original tract analysis.

So what’s happened in recently?  Not much… except 2 homes closing sales and another 4 homes in escrow… with inventory being slash by 50% from its peak.  If you price them right they will come.

Let’s look how things are now using our same methodology:

Oak Knoll Sales

Oak Knoll Sales

Escrow

Date Address Escrow Sellers Agent
5/8/2010 2 Flagstone $1,549,000.00 Bobbi Mezger
5/8/2010 25 Rocky Mountain $2,299,000.00 Lloyd Gass
5/8/2010 7 Endicott $1,695,000.00 Paul Phillips
5/8/2010 19 Rocky Mountain $1,789,000.00 Martha Karelius

Active Listings

Date Address Active Listing Sellers Agent
5/8/2010 6 Flagstone $          1,899,000.00 Ken Bowen
5/8/2010 2 Tucson $          1,850,000.00 Sandy Farmer
5/8/2010 29 Flagstone $          1,575,000.00 Kenneth Stewart
5/8/2010 1 Taiga $          1,550,000.00 Gilbert Macias
5/8/2010 6 Weather Ledge $          1,550,000.00 Jane O’Reilly

Sold

Date Address Closing Price Sellers Agent Buyers Agent
3/22/2010 6 Bordeaux $1,740,000.00 Ken Bowen Tracey Crawford
3/26/2010 9 Flagstone $1,450,000.00 Leonidas Soukeris Gary Watts
11/23/2009 2 Bordeaux $1,850,000.00 Kevin Hill Jane O’Reilly
11/18/2009 5 Loam $1,560,000.00 Yolanda Nolan Yolanda Nolan
8/18/2009 3 Taiga $1,820,000.00 Ken Ross Ken Ross
4/8/2009 7 Loam $1,500,000.00 David Vermilya Denise Zago
12/31/2008 4 Taiga $1,820,000.00 Renee Nichols Renee Nichols
12/3/2008 6 Taiga $1,510,000.00
9/15/2008 25 Flagstone $2,150,000.00 Phil Immel Howard Flowers
9/15/2008 12 Bordeaux $1,700,000.00 Mike Ameel Jim Chiuminatta
6/17/2008 6 Shale $2,276,000.00 Lloyd Gass Lee Jacobs
6/11/2008 12 Weather Ledge $1,950,000.00
6/12/2007 6 Tucson $2,200,000.00
4/17/2007 4 Shale $1,984,500.00

In addition to those, we also had 3 Endicott be purchased at auction for $1,250,000.  Looks like they got a good deal eh?

Comments on Sales

Year Low Sale High Sale Median Volume
2010 $1,450,000.00 $1,740,000.00 $1,595,000.00 2
2009 $1,500,000.00 $1,850,000.00 $1,690,000.00 4
2008 $1,510,000.00 $2,276,000.00 $1,885,000.00 6
2007 $1,984,500.00 $2,200,000.00 $2,092,250.00 2

Unlike my past analysis, this time since we are far enough into 2010, I’ll treat 2009 and 2010 as different years.  With the current 2 sales (not counting the auction sale) low/high/median are still down from 2010 versus 2009.

Comments on Escrow

If I factor in all the homes in escrow at asking, the median price in 2010 will go up to $1,717,500… slightly above 2009.  (which probably means once you figure in the 3% talkdown number, we’ll be right around 2009 numbers or slightly lower).  What will be amazing is assume they all close, we will have had 7 sales in Oak Knoll before the year is half over!  Whowouldathunkit?

The $2.3mil listing isn’t your typical Oak Knoll home, so probably not a completely fair comp.  Its been blown out to 7k square feet and has been completely upgraded (both inside and out) to a level higher than any Oak Knoll property I have seen.  It will be curious to see where they close it at… even as nice as the home showed, I was surprised at how quickly it went into escrow.  But hey at $325/sqft I’ve seen alot lessor properties fetch that.

Comments on Active Listings

3 of the 5 homes currently listed are short sales.  I’ve seen a few homes go into escrow that I would not say are as good of deals as a few of the short sales… so I’m assuming right now the buyers in this market at this point in time are not inclined to go the short sale route.  Or maybe they feel the deal is not compelling enough to risk a short sale and its hassles.  Both 1 Taiga and 29 Flagstone look like fairly nice homes to me and are asking below $270/sqft…

Conclusion

Scratch the inventory problem.  The tract seems to have found a good price point which the market likes.  Even at these prices I’m guess most homes that are closing will require jumbo loans… so this would infer people are able to get loans alot easier than they could a few years ago.   Even with all the recent volume, prices haven’t tanked… I’d probably call it as basically flat from 2009… you got a few low sales.

The homes that are selling (at least the ones I’ve seen) were in decent shape for the most part.  The two recent closed sales were right at $300/sqft (so roughly 10% over our $275 average)  The homes in escrow are all in a similar range… $275-$325… so I’d expect that $300 average to probably hold.

Coto Market, Oak Knoll, What are prices doing?