Archive for September, 2009

More Ron Paul on HR 1207

September 28, 2009

The Real Reasons Behind Fed Secrecy
by Ron Paul

Last week I was very pleased that the Financial Services Committee held a hearing on the Federal Reserve Transparency Act, HR 1207. The bill has 295 cosponsors and there is also strong support for the companion bill in the Senate. This hearing was a major step forward in getting the bill passed.

I was pleased that the hearing was well-attended, especially considering that it was held on a Friday at nine o’clock in the morning! I have been talking about the immense, unchecked power of the Federal Reserve for many years, while the attention of Congress was always on other things. It was gratifying to see my colleagues asking probing questions and demonstrating genuine concern about this important issue as well.

The witness testifying in favor of HR 1207 made some very strong points, which was no surprise considering the bill is simply common sense. It was also no surprise that the witness testifying against the bill had no good arguments as to why a full audit should not be conducted promptly. He attempted to make the case that the fed is already sufficiently accountable to Congress and that the current auditing policy is adequate. The fact is that the Fed comes to Congress and talks about only what it wants to talk about, and the GAO audits only what the current laws allow to be audited. The really important things however, are off limits. There are no convincing arguments that it is in the best interests of the American people for anything the Fed does to be off limits.

It has been argued that full disclosure of details of funding facilities like TALF and PDCF that enabled massive bailouts of Wall Street would damage the financial position of those firms and destabilize the economy. In other words, if the American people knew how rotten the books were at those banks and how terribly they messed up, they would never willingly invest in them, and they would fail. Failure is not an option for friends of the Fed. Therefore, the funds must be stolen from the people in the dark of night. This is not how a free country works. This is not how free markets work. That is crony corporatism and instead of being a force for economic stabilization, it totally undermines it.

If the Fed gave its actual arguments against a full audit, they would not have mentioned anything about political independence or economic stability. Instead they would admit they don’t want to be audited because they enjoy their current situation too much. Under the guise of currency control, they are able to help out powerful allies on Wall Street, in exchange for lucrative jobs or who-knows-what favors later on. An audit would expose the Fed as a massive fraud perpetrated on this country, enriching a privileged few bankers at the top of our economic food chain, and leaving the rest of us with massively devalued dollars which we are forced to use by law. An audit would make people realize that, while Bernie Madoff defrauded a lot of investors for a lot of money, the Fed has defrauded every one of us by destroying the value of our money. An honest and full accounting of how the money system really works in this country would mean there is not much of a chance the American people would stand for it anymore.

High stakes poker

A while back, my first post I did here was an overview of the market over $1.75mil, and the stalemate that was going on for several years.  As I started writing about numerous tracts, it became obvious why certain tracts were selling and certain weren’t.  I kept asking myself “what will be the catalyst to bring prices to equilibrium in this market”…

I think we might finally be starting to see it.  This morning I wake up to my Redfin email of two price reductions:

(I know, 30852 Via Colinas isn’t over $1.75mil… but it was, and being a custom home in a custom tract, definitely sets a comp)

In addition, we have the upcoming 3 auctions:

The interesting thing to me about these auctions, is they will very publicly tell us how many buyers might be out there and what a free market price might be, since an auction is an attempt to force a sale on a specific date.  Given so few homes have sold in this price range in a long time, I would be very surprised at those starting prices, if all 3 sold.

To me, Secoya Way is the interesting one to watch.  Of the 3 properties, its the one probably with the most “general appeal”.  Its got a great lot, but appears to need some minor upgrading.  He’s playing Indian Poker… he’s got a NOD on his property so everyone going in knows his loan situation.  Do you bid now, or hope the property falls through to the bank and try to pick it up cheaper 6 months from now?  Will there be multiple bidders and we’ll finally see what FMV for an Estates property is, or does it fetch the minimum (or below)?

What if Secoya Way fails to get the minimum bid (or only gets the minimum)?  My first thought is this immediately puts pressure on Cappuchina to drop.  IMHO, Secoya appears to be a better property, and if they can’t get $3.9mil (or only fetch the minimum), Cappuchina Way probably doesn’t get the $3.9 they are asking.  If I’m the bank holding Cappuchina Way, and Secoya fails to get $3.9, I think I have to consider dropping to $3.5mil very soon, unless I’m willing to wait it out.

Will Secoya Way fetch $3.9mil? Well, the one argument I would have against it would be 23102 Maravilla,  its a slightly larger home which also appears to need some updating, on a smaller (but still nice) lot.  I have not seen either recently, but going off my knowledge of the area and the pictures on MLS, I would call these roughly equivalent properties.  23102 Maravilla has been on MLS for 180+ days at $3.9mil.  That price is not low enough to make it a “must buy”… so I’m curious if the $3,895,000 for Secoya Way is attractive enough to get a bidder?

What about the other two auction properties and their effect?  I don’t know.  Its easy to argue you keep them listed at those prices and wait, maybe drop Palma Valley slightly.  The problem with those homes is they probably either need to drop significantly  or just wait for the right buyer.  They are both very nicely done homes, but with their unique personalities.  I don’t see if their auction fails, it necessarily causes others to drop… people will argue its the home, not the price.  Either dropping their price I’m not certain causes price pressure either.

Secoya not selling for $3.9 (or selling at $3.9mil) and/or Cappuchina dropping more starts to get interesting.  You are now talking 2 estate homes priced competitively with some lessor custom homes and some very nice tract homes. My gut says, if that happens we see some ripple effect down.

Of course, the flip side… what if all 3 homes sell?  My guess what this means… we’ll see more Coto Ebay, and others who stay listed might be less inclined to drop their price.

There’s alot of “ifs” above… but also enough items coming up, that the next month or so should be very interesting.

(Editors note: I’m ignoring 12 Shire in this discussion.  Given the equity stake in that property, I don’t see it entering the market any time soon.  cdcrez and I agree they will probably cure the NOD.)

Wow

12 Atherton

12 Atherton

“Wow”

That was the email I sent cdcrez this morning, forwarding him the link I got from Redfin that 12 Atherton had listed at $1,999,000 this morning.  That single word probably sums up my thoughts perfectly.  While the MLS listing doesn’t have pictures up yet, its an Atherton Plan 3 with what appears to be a 1 acre, very flat lot.  Typically when I read “resort style grounds”, I puke and think of overly hardscaped back yards… but in the shot I took from bing.com, this doesn’t appear to be the case… it actually looks pretty nicely done.  Plus, I’m a sucker for a good trampoline.  The description of the interior sounds nice as well, although we’ll have to see what it looks like once full pictures are up.

When I wrote up Atherton, I said it wouldn’t surprise me to see a Plan 3 go in the low $2’s before its all said and done.  Unless this home gets multiple offers and a bidding war drives the price up significantly, I think this home will set the comp I mentioned.  I didn’t suspect it would be anywhere near this quickly.  I’ll be honest in saying I will be shocked if this home lasts very long.  The last time a Plan 3 went below $2mil was 2002.  (2004 one went for just over $2mil… that home is 1 Addington…)

This home at this price is an equity sale.

Comps?  As I said, I liken the Plan 3 to the Fairbanks in Weatherly

Current Plan 3/Fairbanks listings:

Closed sales

I hate it when I write up an article, and before it gets posted it is already obsolete and I have to rewrite it.  I was writing up an article called “High Stakes Poker” about how I saw the high end correcting and what would be the catalyst.  Guess I have to rethink that one.  It will be interesting to see what this does to other homes and if this listing is the catalyst now, or just viewed as a statistical anomaly… that for once a buyer won the “housing lottery”.

$1,000 Per Square Foot

Media Room

Media Room

Aerial
Aerial
22962 Sonriente Trail
22962 Sonriente Trail

 

Deck

Deck

 

Game Room and Bar

Game Room and Bar

 

Ya ever wonder whatcha get for $1000 per sq foot?  Ya geddit all; a movie/media room, a game room, a bar, a beautiful kitchen, a couple of acres, horse fencing and corrals, of course a pool, but also a putting green, wine room.

If you have not guessed, this post was an excuse to put up pretty photos of a home.

The Future for the Dollar

  

Home Buyer’s Tax Credit

“We’re calling for extending the credit until the end of next year and expanding it to all homebuyers,” said NAR spokesman Walter Molony. “We do think that housing will recover without it but the market will come back faster and stronger with it.”

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) announced in May that the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) will allow state housing finance agencies to provide second mortgagesmonetizingthe tax credit so that borrowers can use the funds toward their down payments and closing costs for the purchase of homes with FHA-insured mortgage loans.

You can’t solve a problem by doing more of the same things that caused the problem in the first place. How many times have you heard that now?

In response to the crisis, it didn’t take long for our government to establish this program which promoted further lending with no down-payment to young new workers who, sorry to say, are at high-risk for default. Since when are people who owe no taxes eligible for home loans and $8,000 credits? Add kerosene to the fire.

The credit, which applies to sales as of January 2009, is good for 10% of the price of a home, up to $8,000, and supporters assert it has helped stabilize the housing market. It’s available to anyone who has not owned a home for three consecutive years prior to purchase, and to qualify for the full credit buyers must be purchasing a primary residence, and couples can earn no more than $150,000, while individuals must make less than $75,000.

Senator Isakson, a former real estate broker himself who has become a leading voice on housing market issues, had introduced his own bill several weeks ago. That would not only extend the credit for a year after it’s renewed, it would allow all homebuyers, not just first-timers, to claim it, as long as the property is for a principle residence. The bill would also increase the tax refund to as much as $15,000.

It has been estimated by Calculated Risk that the true costs of the program have been $ 43,000 per tax credit instead of the $8,000 face value. We also know that the benefits go to the banks and help keep home costs higher, which is not desirable for the consumer. It helps protect the CDO values that the banks have on their books. It helps the construction industry sell new houses, as well as helping realtors and loan originators.

All of the previous paragraphs are from Naked Capitalism.

The $8,000 home buyers tax credit is about to end and the debate is heating up on whether or not to extend and/or modify the credit.

I say extend it and modify it.  If the government can truly improve the economy and housing market with no unintended consequences by borrowing and printing money, then why not?  And why limit the tax credit to $8,000 or $15,000?  Why not make it $100,000?  And why limit it to those taxpayers whose make less then $75,000, ($150,000 for couples)?  Why not remove all income limits?  And why only for first time home buyers?  In order to help the move up housing market, make it available to all home buyers?  If a little free money is good, then would it not stand to reason that much free money would be better?

Oh heck, why limit free money to home buyers and cash for clunker buyers?  Why does our government not just give $100,000 to every man, woman, and child in America?  Wow, that would end the health care crisis would it not?  Who could not purchase health care insurance or health care itself with an extra $100,000 in their pocket?

Inventory Renewal

Out last post titled “Inventory Renewal” was on Sept. 10.  The following are the new listings since then.

15 Flax Ct.

15 Flax Ct.

15 Flax Court

7 Rosana

7 Rosana

7 Rosana Way

6 Weather Ledge

6 Weather Ledge

6 Weather Ledge – short sale

8 Hickory Fork

8 Hickory Fork

8 Hickory Fork – $430 per sq ft?  What the ?

16 Lyra Way

16 Lyra Way

16 Lyra Way

3 Weather Ledge

3 Weather Ledge

3 Weather Ledge

110 Vela Court – same neighborhood as 18 Hickory Fork and asking $374 per sq ft

This Week, (9-27-09), in Foreclosures

35 Fontaire is scheduled for trustee sale on 09/30/09.  The NTS recorded on 08/07/09 for $6,997.  There have been 3 postponements.  It is my observation that the number of HOA NTSes that go to auction is few to none.

1 Laurelgate is scheduled for trustee sale on 09/30/09.  The NTS for this auction recorded on 06/29/09 for $9,882 and it looks a lot like it was filed by the CZ Master Association.  There is another NOD which recorded on 07/31/09 for $133,782.  Geez, how long did it take the bank to get a clue?  $133,782? There have been 4 postponements of the auction.

8 Brumby is scheduled for trustee sale, (foreclosure auction), on 9/30/09.  The notice of default recorded on 3/25/09 for $53,969.  There has been 1 postponement.

15 Flagstone is scheduled for trustee sale on 9/30/09.  The notice of default recorded on 3/27/09 for $44,675.  There has been 1 postponement.

8 Weber Lane is scheduled for trustee sale on 10/01/08 for $35,754, which is bizarre because every record I look at shows 8 Weber Lane selling as a short sale back in June.  Huh?  Why does this auction keep getting postponed instead of canceled?

108 Dornach Way is scheduled for trustee sale on 10/01/09.  A notice of default recorded on 6/19/08  for $15,427 on a mortgage, but the notice of trustee sale appears to be  filed by the CZ Master Association.  There have been 3 postponements.

18 Running Brook Drive is scheduled for trustee sale on 10/01/09.  The notice of default recorded on 7/30/09 for $138,311, but the notice of trustee sale appears to be filed by the CZ Master Association.  There have been 4 postponements.

4 Rockrose Court is scheduled for trustee sale on 10/02/09.  The notice of default recorded on 3/27/09 for $14,890.  There has been 1 postponement.

31862 Via Patito is scheduled for trustee sale on 10/02/09.  The notice of default recorded on 3/27/09 for $48,382.  There have been 5 postponements.

49 Charleston is scheduled for trustee sale on 9/30/09.  The NOD recorded on 2/24/09 for $19,671 and there have been 4 postponements.

They couldn’t find the keys

3 Weather Ledge

3 Weather Ledge

I know nobody buys a property straight off MLS, sight unseen.  But I think alot of buyers use sites like Redfin as a first pass filter… if something looks interesting, they’ll want to see it fairly quickly.  One of my big pet peeves is when the description hypes up something, and the agent doesn’t include a photo to show what they described.  (A good example is 8 Hickory Fork, where I was disappointed they did not include the picture of their loggia) I don’t know what proper training teaches on a listing, but it seems like an obvious rule of thumb.

3 Weather Ledge in Oak Knoll came on the market yesterday at $1,789,000.  Its listing was a head scratcher for me… of the 8 sentences in the listing, 5 describe the interior and 2 describes the exterior.   “Rich cherrywood custom built formal library”, “wainscote in spacious family room”, “built in entertainment center in upstairs bonus room”, and “his and her commodes”.  Enticing, eh?  Yet when you look at the 8 pictures included, not a single one is of the interior.  They took the time to take 4 pictures of what to me appears to be a fairly small and “ho hum” pool.  I love the look of the “federal” style homes in Oak Knoll, and the first picture looks beautiful.  Unfortunately, Toll Brothers only put the brick facing on the front of the house, so to me the other 3 sides always look a bit disappointing, as do the relative small lots in the tract.  If you’ve got such a nice interior as described, why not include it in the pictures?  My only guess is for some reason the day they took pictures, the agent couldn’t physically get into the house, and we’ll see this updated soon.  Still, I see enough listings which violate my, “If its good enough to be described in the text listing, snap a picture” rule.

Comps?  I listed comps for Oak Knoll in a previous article, and I’d say they still apply for this model, even though its the largest model in the tract (which would lend favorably to this home).

Recent Same Model Sales:

  • 6 Shale (Balboa), 6/12/2008, @2,276,000
  • 4 Taiga (Balboa), 12/29/2008, $1,820,000

Current Listings in Oak Knoll

Price wise, I wouldn’t say its aggressively priced.  Its probably close enough it would get looked and, and you maybe try to bid down.  With the amount of inventory in Oak Knoll right now, its definitely a buyers market.

Note

I’ll have more on Oak Knoll in a week or so here, it will be the next tract I analyze.

Update to This Week, (9-20-09), in Foreclosures

43 CREEK VIEW RD has been postponed to 10/21/09.  The notice of default recorded on 03/26/09 for $15,995.  There have been 3 postponements.

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12 LONE WOLF has been postponed to 10/21/09.  The NOD recorded on 03/16/09 for $39,372.  There have been 3 postponements.

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35 VIA CANDELARIA has been postponed to 10/14/09.  The NOD recorded on 04/14/09 for $10,606.  There have been 2 postponement.

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11 PINE VALLEY has been postponed to 10/14/09.  The NTS is for $6,478 indicating this NTS is for HOA fees or a junior lien holder.  There have been 9 postponements.

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49 CHARLESTON LN has been postponed to 9/30/09, only a one week reprieve.  The NOD recorded on 02/24/09 for $19,671.  There have been 4 postponements.

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31832 VIA COYOTE has been postponed to 10/23/09.  The NOD recorded on 06/23/08 for $15,728.  There have been 4 postponements and a short sale is ensuing.

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6 PANORAMA has been postponed to 10/22/09.  The NOD recorded on 01/16/09 for $33,502.  There have been 10 postponements, and the first scheduled auction date was 5/21/09.
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2 CONSTELLATION WAY has been postponed to 10/22/09.  The NOD recorded on 03/17/09 for $12,349.  There have been 5 postponements.
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35 FONTAIRE has been postponed to 09/30/09.  A five day postponement?  Huh?  That seems a bit unusual to me.  What will the CZ Master Association do in five days?  Postpone again?  I doubt if they would take the house.  Have they ever gone through with a trustee sale?  The NTS recorded on 08/07/09 for $6,997.  There have been 3 postponements.  It is my observation that the number of HOA NTSes that go to auction is few to none.
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1 LAURELGATE was postponed to 09/30/09. Another five day postponement?  What gives? The NTS for this auction recorded on 06/29/09 for $9,882 and it  looks  a lot like it was filed by the CZ Master Association.  There is another NOD which recorded on 07/31/09 for $133,782.  Geez, how long did it take the bank to get a clue?  $133,782? There have been 4 postponements of the auction.