A successful flip: 7 Pictor into escrow, asking $899,900 with right at 2 weeks on the market.
Active Listings
Your active listings look like:
| Price Range | 7/23/2010 | 7/30/2010 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| < $750k | 10 | 11 | 1 |
| $750k-$1mil | 23 | 20 | -3 |
| $1mil-$1.25mil | 17 | 18 | 1 |
| $1.25mil-$1.5mil | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| $1.5mil-$2mil | 19 | 21 | 2 |
| $2mil-$3mil | 17 | 16 | -1 |
| $3mil-$4mil | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| $4mil+ | 17 | 18 | 1 |
| Total | 109 | 110 | 1 |
New listings for this week:
| Date | Address | Tract | Short? | Sqft | Current Price | $ / Sqft | Sellers Agent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/24/2010 | 18 Havenhurst | Weatherly | FALSE | 6100 | $2,898,000.00 | $475.08 | Ken Bowen |
| 7/25/2010 | 31661 Via Coyote | Village | FALSE | 3769 | $925,000.00 | $245.42 | Bobbi Mezger |
| 7/29/2010 | 30932 Via Serenidad | Woods | FALSE | 6800 | $4,400,000.00 | $647.06 | Mariann Cordova |
| 7/29/2010 | 9 Cherry Hills | Greens | FALSE | 3427 | $1,495,000.00 | $436.24 | Bobbi Mezger |
| 7/30/2010 | 2 Seacliff | Hillsboro | FALSE | 3327 | $849,000.00 | $255.18 | Bobbi Mezger |
| 7/30/2010 | 5 Augusta | Masters | FALSE | 4978 | $1,650,000.00 | $331.46 | Debra Kovacs |
Escrow
Your current escrow looks like:
| Price Range | 7/23/2010 | 7/30/2010 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| <$750k | 13 | 11 | -2 |
| $750k-$1mil | 18 | 21 | 3 |
| $1mil-$1.25mil | 5 | 4 | -1 |
| $1.25mil-$1.5mil | 7 | 5 | -2 |
| $1.5mil-$2mil | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| $2mil-$3mil | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| $3mil-$4mil | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| $4mil+ | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 47 | 45 | -2 |
| Short Sales | 34 | 32 |
New homes into escrow this week:
| Date | Address | Tract | Short? | Sqft | Current Price | $ / Sqft | Sellers Agent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/24/2010 | 31962 Via Pavo Real | Village | TRUE | 2800 | $675,000.00 | $241.07 | Cathy Welch |
| 7/26/2010 | 14 Brentwood | Hillsboro | TRUE | 3351 | $750,000.00 | $223.81 | Sheri Isaacs |
| 7/26/2010 | 7 Pictor | Courante | FALSE | 3300 | $899,900.00 | $272.70 | Carole Geronsin |
| 7/28/2010 | 6 Weather Ledge | Oak Knoll | TRUE | 4800 | $1,550,000.00 | $322.92 | Jane O’Reilly |
| 7/28/2010 | 6 Willow Bend | Oak Ridge | FALSE | 3188 | $929,000.00 | $291.41 | Debra Kovacs |
| 7/29/2010 | 6 Westchester | Tanglewood | FALSE | 3170 | $869,900.00 | $274.42 | Rick Cosenza |
| 7/30/2010 | 8 Carnoustie | Classics | TRUE | 3247 | $849,000.00 | $261.47 | Debra Kovacs |
Closed Sales
The last 4 weeks of closed sales looks like:
| Price Range | 7/9/2010 | 7/16/2010 | 7/23/2010 | 7/30/2010 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <$750k | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| $750k-$1mil | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| $1mil-$1.25mil | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| $1.25mil-$1.5mil | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| $1.5mil-$2mil | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| $2mil-$3mil | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| $3mil-$4mil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| $4mil+ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 Week Total | 28 | 24 | 19 | 14 |
Closed sales for the past 2 weeks:
| Closed Sales | Address | Tract | Sold | $ / Sqft | Talkdown | Sellers Agent | Buyers Agent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/20/2010 | 31161 Via Consuelo | Arbours | $1,250,000.00 | $336.93 | -7% | Kathi Kanan | Janice Chafin |
| 7/21/2010 | 13 Cherry Hills | Greens | $1,530,000.00 | $332.61 | -7% | David O’Brien | David O’Brien |
| 7/21/2010 | 5 Pegasus | Glenmere | $935,000.00 | $239.13 | -4% | Ryan Edwards | Tracey Crawford |
| 7/23/2010 | 31831 Via Coyote | Village | $840,000.00 | $202.17 | -2% | Mike Ameel | Anthony Ingoglia |
| 7/23/2010 | 29 Flagstone | Oak Knoll | $1,417,000.00 | $242.51 | 1% | Kenneth Stewart | Out of Area |
| 7/26/2010 | 19 Windflower | East Hill | $1,175,000.00 | $317.57 | -2% | Sandy Caporale | Margo Murray |
| 7/29/2010 | 12 Northampton | Stonehedge | $612,023.00 | $256.40 | -3% | Auctioneer | |
| 7/29/2010 | 42 Vela | Crooked Oak | $845,000.00 | $256.06 | 0% | Jeff Lawson | Cheryl Lattimore |
| 7/26/2010 | 27 Hubbard | Silver Creek | $1,300,000.00 | $325.00 | -4% | James Zakhar | Bernie Ryerson |
| 7/30/2010 | 18 Portmanoch | Southern Hills | $1,489,637.00 | N/A | N/A | Auctioneer | |
| 7/30/2010 | 31902 Apuesto Way | Los Ranchos Estates | $799,813.00 | N/A | N/A | Auctioneer |
Price Changes
| Date | Address | Tract | Current Price | Old Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7/24/2010 | 28 Sunningdale | Southern Hills | $1,249,000.00 | $1,349,000.00 | -7% |
| 7/24/2010 | 4 Flat Iron | Oak View | $1,198,500.00 | $1,199,000.00 | 0% |
| 7/27/2010 | 18 Orion | Glenmere | $1,039,995.00 | $1,075,000.00 | -3% |
| 7/27/2010 | 6 Flagstone | Oak Knoll | $1,699,000.00 | $1,799,000.00 | -6% |
| 7/28/2010 | 15 Seacliff | Hillsboro | $839,000.00 | $844,000.00 | -1% |
| 7/28/2010 | 23762 Via Monte | Forest | $1,849,000.00 | $1,899,000.00 | -3% |
| 7/29/2010 | 15 Pebble Beach | Hillsboro | $1,019,000.00 | $1,029,000.00 | -1% |
| 7/29/2010 | 31752 Secoya Way | Los Ranchos Estates | $4,995,000.00 | $5,995,000.00 | -17% |
| 7/30/2010 | 2 Shire | Woods | $1,999,000.00 | $2,100,000.00 | -5% |
| 7/30/2010 | 30832 Via Vista | Forest | $3,295,000.00 | $3,395,000.00 | -3% |
| 7/30/2010 | 49 Dartmouth | Montecito | $665,000.00 | $649,000.00 | 2% |
Comments
Total inventory remains constant, but product mix shifts slightly to the higher end with some new listings above $1.5mil and a large number of accepted offers below $1mil. Inventory still has around 10% short sales. New inventory came in above our $275/sqft average due to 4 of the 6 listings being $1.5mil+ properties, including our second Weatherly in as many weeks and another nice Stuck-worthy estate. Bobbi Mezger appears to be pulling some overtime, landing 3 of the 6 listings.
Escrow drops slightly driven by some closings and some foreclosings. 7 homes accepted offers, with 6 being under $1mil. The $275/sqft average holds steady again… some slightly over, and few short sales lower. 4 of 7 homes accepting offers this week are short sales and again roughly 70% of our accepted offers are short sales.
After a run on inventory in May, we’ve gone almost 2 months now with an offer on a home asking over $1.6mil sticking. That market segment represents about half of Coto’s active inventory. 13 different homes in that price range had price reductions in July… typically I see a price reduction as an indication the seller wants to sell.
As predicted last week, closed sales continue to drop off and our 4 week average returns to 14. With 13 equity sales in escrow that 14 number is probably roughly where we expect to stay for a while. One thing noteworthy to point out, we finally may be seeing some short sales closing, with 4 shorts (of 11 total) closing in the last 3 weeks. $$/sqft seems to be you either pay $330 or $250… not much inbetween the past 2 weeks. Talkdown was the standard 3-7%. 3 homes went back to the bank this week.
On the price change front, most of the action is above $1mil, as the lower priced homes appear to be moving better. A few decent sized (> 5%) price reductions, probably people trying to get the sale in before the summer buying period ends in a week or two here.
That last sentence is probably the best summary now… with end of August 30 days away and people getting ready for school, we would expect final closings for houses with kids. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few decent price cuts in the next week or two to clear out inventory. If you see a can’t-miss deal out there, let us know. Our Blue Light Special still exists.
See you next week.
cotoagent
July 31st, 2010
Question for all… Why only two homes between $1.25m and $1.5m???? care to guess on the answer!!!!
C Delroy Spuckler
July 31st, 2010
My guess is because there is a gap in the market when prices dropped. The lower/mid range in Coto is down roughly 30%. The homes that would fill that range are Oak Knoll, Oak View, San Marino and Pinnacle.
Pinnacle has not dropped yet, or I guess, dropped last year and then recovered this year. The lessor Pinnacle homes would probably be around $1.5mil.
Oak View / Oak Knoll have alot of short sales, so they are taking a while to work through the system . The equity sales in Oak Knoll are asking > $1.5mil right now.
San Marino has very little inventory active. The short sales and foreclosure go through in the $1.25-$1.5mil range, the equity sales are asking > $1.75mil.
In general, as you go up the price range, there are also fewer homes in Coto, so you’d expect fewer sales.
It probably also doesn’t help that with 20% or even 30% down, that price range requires a jumbo loan.
My gut says by Q3/Q4 we’ll see alot of activity in that range, primarily from Oak Knoll. Getting Oak Knoll homes under $1.5mil seems like a good deal, and I think they will be liquid at that price. Ditto for San Marino.
What say ye?